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Type II -- Population Trends in China


Karl H T

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Of course I did evaluate the logistic curve as well as my other options. But does the portfolio mandate that I prove that the logistic curve is the best for this set of data, or can I argue that another is better?

The reason I ask is because I am also evaluating another curve which fits more closely to the points. And the curve gradually flattens after the data just like the logistic one does. The only negative is that the curve before the data set decreases to reach a minimum point then increases to fit the data points (I'm not sure if that's clear, hope it made sense)

Can I argue for it because it better fits the points, or does the portfolio want us to prove that the logistic specifically is best?

EDIT: Or maybe I just shouldn't risk it and stick with logistic, yes? :/

Edited by nb94
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well... does your population start at an infinite point?

No.

Use the function that most accurately represents your data set : population. Population should start near 0, and rise gradually.

Prove whichever function you wish to use is the best. You're allowed to use another function, but you must use the best function.

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hello, how do you get the parameters of K, L , M. I looked at the pdf posted on the first page but I am still confused o how to get the Parameters.. can someone please help me? sad.gif

p.s What is regression??

Hey. If you have a GDC like TI-83 or TI-84 this should be easy. Go to STATS then then click on edit and enter all the data that was given. The years are too large and makes it harder to graph so you can input 0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45. These are the exact intervals as the years so the accuracy is fine. After you enter both the year and population value quit and then go back to STATS. Go across to CALC then scroll down all the way to logistic...which is B I believe then press enter then put L1 and L2. Then waalaa you have your parameters. biggrin.gif

woah... you are awesome. thank you so much. should i refer to the logistic function on the calculator to describe how i used technology to estimate the parameters?
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hello, how do you get the parameters of K, L , M. I looked at the pdf posted on the first page but I am still confused o how to get the Parameters.. can someone please help me? sad.gif

p.s What is regression??

Hey. If you have a GDC like TI-83 or TI-84 this should be easy. Go to STATS then then click on edit and enter all the data that was given. The years are too large and makes it harder to graph so you can input 0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45. These are the exact intervals as the years so the accuracy is fine. After you enter both the year and population value quit and then go back to STATS. Go across to CALC then scroll down all the way to logistic...which is B I believe then press enter then put L1 and L2. Then waalaa you have your parameters. biggrin.gif

woah... you are awesome. thank you so much. should i refer to the logistic function on the calculator to describe how i used technology to estimate the parameters?

Awww thanks lol. I try to help. Umm I guess you could use that to describe technology. I'd probably ask the teacher just for verification though. Good luck with the paper :)

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i'm attempting to do this today, and have just started. With plotting the points, I found a cubic fit the best (out of what the graphing techn. gave me automatically...) but to find it do I have to use matrices? And If doing so, should I do it through the ninth power? And also, when doing that... should I use the year as the number? ... 1950 or should I value it as 1, 2, 3... etc.

Any advice would be really helpful!

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Guest hiddenninja

At the end of the IA, they ask us "how well each of the models above fit the IMF data", does this include the researcher's model? or is it only the models that we created?

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