How accurate are predicted grades?

[elmar]

From the look of it, the predicted grades are not that reliable ("A guy from my school was predicted 41 but got 27. Bummer." vs. "Predicted 6 but got 7 in actual"). If so, what's the point of them? How are they used to improve your actual marks? I'm already on the fence of doing IB and the thought of IB marks potentially messing up my chance of IB worries me.

[Tsubaki]

My experience with them is that they are extremely unreliable, to the point of being almost entirely worthless. I was predicted 7 in Maths, Biology, and French, and a 6 in English, Chemistry, and History. I ended up with a 7 in Maths, a 6 in History, French, and Chemistry, and a 5 in English and Biology. I see no adequate explanation for this; all my teachers (save my French teacher) were very experienced with teaching their respective IB courses, and I tried just as hard as, if not harder than, usual when studying for my exams.

My marks, sadly, were some of the most stable. Much of my Maths class had around the same mark as me (Around 95% provincially) and were all predicted 7s, and yet I was the only one to get higher than a 5. In Chemistry HL, both my friend and I were predicted 6, yet he got a 4. In history, most people were predicted 5 or 6, yet aside from myself, I have seen nothing but 4s. Biology was by far the worst; the lowest predicted grade was 6, yet I have yet to see from our class a grade higher than 5. In Music (which I did not take) the predicted grades ranged from 4 to 7; the entire class received 6.

Based solely on personal experience, I would tell you that final grades seem to correlate only very loosely with final grades. On average, final grades seem to be at most 1 point below predicted, except in exceptional circumstances. The thing is, it probably won't be like that for you personally if you do IB, I think my class' grades this year was quite an outlier.

[tdubthebassist]

overall point wise, our school is pretty accurate. But as in a individual score on each subject, not at all!

well of course, Predicted grade is not accurate usually because that is the score when your teacher looks on your positive side on you. And as the characteristic of the exam, it might vary so much and negative things can happen.

[PositiveVibes]

I think predicted grades are only a way of telling in about what range the student is or in some cases could be if he/she pulls it together during exams. Most people at my school got +/- 5 p from their predicted grade (except for that one guy who was predicted 42 but got 27).. That does matter when getting into college and such so the predicteds aren't too acurate, but it does give the uni's you aply to a feeling of what level you should be capable of achieving.

It sucks to get lower than your expected grades, but you realize they only mean what your teachers think you are capable of given they have never seen the exams or how you act in high stress exam situations. You yourself should be able to give yourself at least as accurate predicted grades.

[Sandwich]

Really, it depends on how good your teachers are -- not only at teaching the subject, but also at being on-message and really understanding what the IB are looking fore. If you have a teacher who knows EXACTLY what the IB wants, they might teach the same content as another History teacher (for example xP) but finetune your essay-writing approach in a way which another teacher wouldn't tell you to concentrate on the same sorts of thing. They'd both predict you the same grade, but teacher no. 1 had a better idea of what the IB wanted and so his students will do better than the students of teacher no. 2. Predicted grades are just things your teachers make up; they're not IB examiners and chances are that they're not necessarily the best at guessing how well your work will do. A classic example of this was my Chemistry coursework -- I did exactly what my Chemistry teacher said, followed her rough guidelines and instructions, she predicted me a 7 and I got a 4. Clearly she had no idea what she was talking about. She knew enough about Chemistry, but sod all about how to score well in IAs and what the IB examiners are actually looking for the students to say. Conversely, I had some teachers who I'd trust absolutely anything they said, they were amazing at knowing what was needed.

That, alongside good days/bad days and of course a dash of luck as to whether what you're best at pops up in the exam, accounts for being a grade or so out; if your scores are wildly out, either your teachers did a very bad job of preparing you, you didn't put the effort in for your IAs, or you didn't work hard enough for the final stretch leading up to the exams. Predictions are often made in IB1 before a lot of the IAs have been done, before the EE and before life gets stressful. Lots of peoples marks in IB1 will be a lot better than in IB2, and some the other way round as they respond well to pressure and know when to put the effort in after slacking off! If you think about it, predicting a grade when somebody's only completed half the material (and often not the hardest bits) is pretty difficult. Teachers are only human, and some of them significantly hopeless whilst others are really good.

Predicted grades are, to my understanding, somewhat irrelevant in the USA -- I guess they're probably meant to tell you where you're at, so if you're doing really badly, you need to buck up your game, and if you're doing well, that whatever you're doing is the right tactic.

In the UK and elsewhere in Europe, they're very important as they're the only indicator of your academic abilities for prospective Universities. They're not at all meant to help you get better grades, they're there to help Universities select you out of other candidates. So they're about a zillion times more important Without predicted grades, you'd effectively apply to University with no expected higher qualifications whatsoever. The last set of exams would usually be from when you were 16!

[__inthemaking]

Mine were pretty spot on, only 1 point off (predicted 41). It really just depends on the school/teacher and how willing they are to predict high. My chem teacher refused to predict anybody a 7 (even students that were receiving high 90s in the course, they were all predicted a 6) so that it wouldn't reflect badly on the school if the students didn't end up getting a 7.

[Tilia]

I was predicted 44 and got 44. However, I was predicted 6 for Swedish and 7 for philosophy, but I got 7 for Swedish and 6 for philosophy.

As said, it depends on your teacher's experience of IB and also on subject, I'd say. Experienced teachers, who may be examiners themselves, are of course better in predicting, than new unexperienced ones. I also suppose that subjects such as maths and physics are easier to mark than for instance Swedish and philosophy, where the criteria can be interpreted in many different ways. The markschemes for languages A1 P1 are simply jokes! They don't say anything. So if you have a fairly new teacher in those subjects, you might be a bit careful about you predicted.

I also think that if you're predicted a 7, you feel like "Oh good, I know this then" and stop studying. Don't. Keep studying, regardless of predicted grades. In fact, the best would be not to know them and trust your gut feeling. If you feel that you don't know the stuff, keep studying, even if you are predicted a 7!

Edited July 11, 2010 by Tilia

[deissi]

What a few people here are failing to take into account is that it is much easier to predict someone a 7 in a subject than a 5. A 5 can easily change into a 4 or a 6 after moderation or a good/bad final exam performance. On the other hand, people who do well in school can be predicted high 7s, and their actual exam marks are well above the mark boundary for a 7. Therefore, slight moderation or relatively poor exam performance would not lower their score to a 6 from a 7.

[kingdomx]

I think that they are quite accurate, as last year two students got a predicted score of 44, and they both ended up getting this score. But maybe this is only accurate for the top marks? Usually they are correct though.

[greaterthaninfinity]

I'm surprised some of you guys had such unreliable predictions because mine were pretty accurate. The teachers who predicted precisely what I ultimately got were good teachers. In the subjects where my final mark was either overestimated or underestimated, the predictions were only off by one point. My final total was too only overestimated by one point. I think you should be able to gauge for yourself if your teachers have wrong predictions. If they are adequate in teaching, then I would say that they probably will deviate at most a point from your final mark.

In any case, good luck and don't worry about it too much. Just work hard and you'll meet your predictions. I basically lost momentum at the end of IB and studied the day before for Math and Bio, which is why I didn't meet my predictions.

Edited August 7, 2010 by greaterthaninfinity

[IOwnAndPwnU]

Predictions are usually/only accurate as long as the same amount of work/time is being dedicated to the said subject. If you put in more time, you're predicted will be lower than your actual. Similarly, if you dedicate less time, you're predicted will be higher than your actual. Some people take predicted marks to heart. Some common scenarios:

-bad mark --> person gives up --> bad mark

-good mark --> person thinks they're smart and gets over confident --> bad mark

-bad mark --> person is motivated to do better --> good mark

-good mark --> person continues at same level of working hard --> good mark

Pretty simple. Just don't take the predicted marks too seriously, but not with a grain of salt either. They are intended as a self evaluation, and they should motivate you to do better regardless of your mark is.

[Summer Glau]

At my school they're pretty accurate. I haven't started IB but I know from the class above me the predictions are usually spot on, if not then +/- 1 point. I have yet to hear of someone to get +/- 2 points from their predicted grade.

[A_Dying_Wren]

I was predicted more or less spot on with what I actually got but I'd concur it largely depends on your teachers as well as how determined you are. I reckon teachers tend to give the benefit of the doubt very often but this can easily fail in the face of insufficent preparation for the exams

[theloserwins]

Sometimes things are unpredicted.

I heard that for Physics 2010 May, IB found an ex-HKALE examiner.

Then the Physics exams become crazily hard.

Your teachers would not predict that the examiners become so much more harsh.

Therefore... your teacher couldn't predict your grade accurately, no matter how experienced he/she is.

[bakefizzle]

I think the lower your predicted grade is, the more it will go up. People who have commented so far who received 40+ have stated that they only fluctuated by a mark or two. With 7 weeks to go, some people just have the ability to shut themselves away and end up killing the exam. Example being my sister, who had a predicted of 36 but ended up getting 42.

[Daedalus]

A weird thing about IAs: the most common results I've so far seen from moderation is that the higher marks get 1-2 pts down, and the lower marks get 1-2 pts up. This is a pattern with the IB predicted as well: in my experience, the ones above 40 have tended to slightly deflate compared to predictions, whereas the ones under 30 tended to go up. Mostly panic/contentment syndrome I guess...

Also sometimes teachers will be nice to a student (unconsciously!) and give them unrealistic predictions. Others will hate you and predict worse marks than are realistic. Some will be terrible teachers and sometimes you get whole batches of 4s and 5s, when 7s and 6s were predicted. It varies.

Best guideline? Check your school's (and individual teachers') past record. How accurate have they been in the past? This is probably the best indicator of future success... we're not flipping coins here.

[chrypton]

I have almost always received grades that are 1-2 higher than my predicted grade. Don't take predicted grades too seriously.

[JustAnotherAsian]

on an unrelated note, how did chrypton take a HL as an anticipated?

[Guest Soiboist]

on an unrelated note, how did chrypton take a HL as an anticipated?

You bumped the thread in a rather nasty way, but I will still reply. IB is not runned the same way all over the world as in the US. I know that the schools in the US usually let the students take their SL subjects one year early, but in fact it is entirely possible to take HL subjects one year early as well. As you can take certificates basically how you want, a HL certificate can be taken before the other exams, and it will still add upp to your diploma when you have taken the other exams + core with CAS etc.

[nametaken]

Really, it depends on how good your teachers are -- not only at teaching the subject, but also at being on-message and really understanding what the IB are looking fore. If you have a teacher who knows EXACTLY what the IB wants, they might teach the same content as another History teacher (for example xP) but finetune your essay-writing approach in a way which another teacher wouldn't tell you to concentrate on the same sorts of thing. They'd both predict you the same grade, but teacher no. 1 had a better idea of what the IB wanted and so his students will do better than the students of teacher no. 2. Predicted grades are just things your teachers make up; they're not IB examiners and chances are that they're not necessarily the best at guessing how well your work will do. A classic example of this was my Chemistry coursework -- I did exactly what my Chemistry teacher said, followed her rough guidelines and instructions, she predicted me a 7 and I got a 4. Clearly she had no idea what she was talking about. She knew enough about Chemistry, but sod all about how to score well in IAs and what the IB examiners are actually looking for the students to say. Conversely, I had some teachers who I'd trust absolutely anything they said, they were amazing at knowing what was needed.

That, alongside good days/bad days and of course a dash of luck as to whether what you're best at pops up in the exam, accounts for being a grade or so out; if your scores are wildly out, either your teachers did a very bad job of preparing you, you didn't put the effort in for your IAs, or you didn't work hard enough for the final stretch leading up to the exams. Predictions are often made in IB1 before a lot of the IAs have been done, before the EE and before life gets stressful. Lots of peoples marks in IB1 will be a lot better than in IB2, and some the other way round as they respond well to pressure and know when to put the effort in after slacking off! If you think about it, predicting a grade when somebody's only completed half the material (and often not the hardest bits) is pretty difficult. Teachers are only human, and some of them significantly hopeless whilst others are really good.

Predicted grades are, to my understanding, somewhat irrelevant in the USA -- I guess they're probably meant to tell you where you're at, so if you're doing really badly, you need to buck up your game, and if you're doing well, that whatever you're doing is the right tactic.

In the UK and elsewhere in Europe, they're very important as they're the only indicator of your academic abilities for prospective Universities. They're not at all meant to help you get better grades, they're there to help Universities select you out of other candidates. So they're about a zillion times more important Without predicted grades, you'd effectively apply to University with no expected higher qualifications whatsoever. The last set of exams would usually be from when you were 16!

Yet in the UK, I've heard that they're planning to make it so that you apply to University after you get your final grades. Predicted grades will be done away with. Source: BBC