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Type II -- Population Trends in China


Karl H T

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Hey youcandoit and alex, I finally wrote it already! Here it is.
How to Model a Quartic Function
5VMua.jpg I think you should be able to model other polynomial functions from there because the idea is about the same. FYI if you don't want to use rref, you can actually solve for a, b, c and d using elimination and substitution. Also, you can use inverse to solve the matrices instead of transforming it into an augmented matrix and doing rref. Be careful, just find the inverse using calculator, don't do it yourself because finding the inverse of 3x3 or 4x4 matrix is not as easy as finding the inverse of 2x2 matrix. I will try to figure out the IMF modification thing..and youcandoit if you still have problems please ask again, specify your question, I will try to help!

I tried using this system and it worked for a 4x4 but since i want it to be more accurate i tried a 6x6 and i just cant get i to work. I double check tht it is rigth by multiplying the matrix with its inverse and then getting a identity, but somehow i just end up with some 1&0 and the rest just being tiny numbers. I've checked the numbers like 100000 times but it still wont work.. <_<

any advice?

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have you converted the years to small integers like 0, 1, 2, 3, and so on and so forth?

when I first did it I got the same result as you because I used those big values of year, but then I figured out that we need to convert the year first to smaller numbers and then the matrices will work.

So I've read all 37 pages, and I must say that you people are all true lifesavers. :)

One quick question though. As I do my sextic equation on Microsoft Excel, I am receiving E values. What do these mean? Am I supposed to have these? (I do know that I have to solve the equation analytically, but I don't want my graph to be wrong).

Basically, I put the graph onto an XY Scatterplot, and created an x^6 polynomial trend line.

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So I've read all 37 pages, and I must say that you people are all true lifesavers. :)

One quick question though. As I do my sextic equation on Microsoft Excel, I am receiving E values. What do these mean? Am I supposed to have these? (I do know that I have to solve the equation analytically, but I don't want my graph to be wrong).

Basically, I put the graph onto an XY Scatterplot, and created an x^6 polynomial trend line.

thank you! glad to hear that :)

basically latex.php?content=En=10^n so yeahh

hmm for your analytical model (first model), you're not supposed to do that. you HAVE to do it analytically (algebraically, mathematically) so you need to use matrices as in my attachment above (quoted in post #722) instead of just finding best regression (technologically) because for yuor second model (the researcher's model) you have to find it technologically.

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So I've read all 37 pages, and I must say that you people are all true lifesavers. :)

One quick question though. As I do my sextic equation on Microsoft Excel, I am receiving E values. What do these mean? Am I supposed to have these? (I do know that I have to solve the equation analytically, but I don't want my graph to be wrong).

Basically, I put the graph onto an XY Scatterplot, and created an x^6 polynomial trend line.

thank you! glad to hear that :)

basically latex.php?content=En=10^n so yeahh

hmm for your analytical model (first model), you're not supposed to do that. you HAVE to do it analytically (algebraically, mathematically) so you need to use matrices as in my attachment above (quoted in post #722) instead of just finding best regression (technologically) because for yuor second model (the researcher's model) you have to find it technologically.

I plan to develop it analytically later, mainly because I have trouble inputting the matrices into my calculator and using rref to solve for the equation. We were never taught this in class, and I really doubt that my teacher will teach it to us, but this is what I put into the calculator (TI-83):

This is what I try to do based on your example:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matrix A:

[(1950)^6 (1950)^5...(1950)...554.8]

[(1955)^6 (1955)^5...(1955)...609.0]

[(1960)^6 (1960)^5...(1960)...657.5]

[(1965)^6 (1965)^5...(1965)...729.2]

[(1970)^6...]

[(1975)^6...]

[(1980)^6...]

[(1985)^6...]

[(1990)^6...]

When I rref it, I get an INVALID DIM.

I planned to use the R^2 value and equation in Excel to justify why I was using an x^6 equation as opposed to x^2 or linear, exponential, etc.

Edited by DKMikey
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So I've read all 37 pages, and I must say that you people are all true lifesavers. :)

One quick question though. As I do my sextic equation on Microsoft Excel, I am receiving E values. What do these mean? Am I supposed to have these? (I do know that I have to solve the equation analytically, but I don't want my graph to be wrong).

Basically, I put the graph onto an XY Scatterplot, and created an x^6 polynomial trend line.

thank you! glad to hear that :)

basically latex.php?content=En=10^n so yeahh

hmm for your analytical model (first model), you're not supposed to do that. you HAVE to do it analytically (algebraically, mathematically) so you need to use matrices as in my attachment above (quoted in post #722) instead of just finding best regression (technologically) because for yuor second model (the researcher's model) you have to find it technologically.

I plan to develop it analytically later, mainly because I have trouble inputting the matrices into my calculator and using rref to solve for the equation. We were never taught this in class, and I really doubt that my teacher will teach it to us, but this is what I put into the calculator (TI-83):

This is what I try to do based on your example:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matrix A:

[(1950)^6 (1950)^5...(1950)...554.8]

[(1955)^6 (1955)^5...(1955)...609.0]

[(1960)^6 (1960)^5...(1960)...657.5]

[(1965)^6 (1965)^5...(1965)...729.2]

[(1970)^6...]

[(1975)^6...]

[(1980)^6...]

[(1985)^6...]

[(1990)^6...]

When I rref it, I get an INVALID DIM.

I planned to use the R^2 value and equation in Excel to justify why I was using an x^6 equation as opposed to x^2 or linear, exponential, etc.

lol of course, your matrix is incomplete

well use inverse?

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lol of course, your matrix is incomplete

well use inverse?

I think I figured out the problem with the matrix. It has to be a square [7x7] to do an rref. However, I'm getting some REALLY weird numbers now...

In the end, I've decided to do substitution and elimination instead. However, I am completely stuck as to how to solve a system of equations with 9 different equations. Do you think you could help me?

(The problems I'm having is how to isolate variables, or how to approach the system of equations, etc.).

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no I couldn't... why do you think matrices were invented?? because people couldn't manage to solve 9 equations with 9 variables simultaneously with substitution and elimination!! D::punish:

I'm even too lazy to do 4 equations...with 9 equations? I'll die.

I can guide you with forming the matrices though if you've realised how much like a suicide solving for 9 variables with substitution and elimination is. you're indeed supposed to get weird numbers, it's very rare to get nice numbers when you have lots of random data like that.

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have you converted the years to small integers like 0, 1, 2, 3, and so on and so forth?

when I first did it I got the same result as you because I used those big values of year, but then I figured out that we need to convert the year first to smaller numbers and then the matrices will work.

yep, did 0,5,10 and so on but decided to go for onyl a cubic and quartic and then like discuss which one works best cause i dont feel like putting down too much time when i'm gonna go for the researcher's model in the end, but thanks :D

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I can guide you with forming the matrices though if you've realised how much like a suicide solving for 9 variables with substitution and elimination is. you're indeed supposed to get weird numbers, it's very rare to get nice numbers when you have lots of random data like that.

- Post edited so I wouldn't go against the rules and give away any answers. I PM'd you.

Edited by DKMikey
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Hey I'm having difficulty with "developing one model function" how do I go about doing that? Any suggestions?

Basically, try different equations until you find the best line of fit for the original function. The words "regression equations" should come in handy, you might want to google that. If you read earlier in the thread, there are programs that can graph those regression lines, no technical work involved.

1. First, find out the function you want to graph (sin wave, polynomial, linear, etc.)

2. Compare and contrast characteristics that would make this function appropriate for your original model.

3. Solve the equation for that model analytically ONLY (as in no technology)

- To do this, plug in the X and Y values and go on from there. I can't give you specific instructions after that because it is based on what kind of function you decided to use.

Good luck!

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Hit another roadblock. Many people are saying that the researcher's model for the logistic function is dead on, but I am not getting that (despite using the calculator, putting values in list with L1, L2, Y1 and calculating the logistic regression). Is this true?

what do you mean? the researcher's model part is indeed easy, just plot the data in yout GDC and generate the logistic regression that's it.

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Hit another roadblock. Many people are saying that the researcher's model for the logistic function is dead on, but I am not getting that (despite using the calculator, putting values in list with L1, L2, Y1 and calculating the logistic regression). Is this true?

what do you mean? the researcher's model part is indeed easy, just plot the data in yout GDC and generate the logistic regression that's it.

Yep, that's what I did. I was just confused because when I read those 37 pages of lots of information, many people on the forums were saying that the researcher's model matched exactly with the data points of the graph, so I felt like I was doing it wrong. I'm probably just overthinking this.

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Yep, that's what I did. I was just confused because when I read those 37 pages of lots of information, many people on the forums were saying that the researcher's model matched exactly with the data points of the graph, so I felt like I was doing it wrong. I'm probably just overthinking this.

ohh. I think the researcher's model is indeed the best model but it doesn't really go through EVERY single point exactly. it's just the shape is really fitting the data.

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