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Maths HL Statistics and Probability Paper 3


Ibdying

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Hi, how did u guys find the paper?

Personally I felt it was horrible :/ all the questions that came were so unrelated to past year papers! Hoping for a 40+ really want that 7 in maths.

What about u guys?

Edited by Ibdying
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Just a side-note, but paper 3 doesn't have seperate papers for each timezone, so we all did the same paper.

I thought the first three questions were okay (though the last parts of Q2 and Q3 weren't great), but Q4 was horrible. I didn't recognize that it was a CDF/CMF question for (b) and ©, so I ended up leaving it pretty much blank. That was the one topic that didn't show up on the last 4-5 exams (despite being on the syllabus), so I hadn't revised it at all. :(

This may be wishful thinking on my side, but I really hope the boundaries of the paper are low to compensate for the last question. 10 marks for a rarely asked topic, IMO, was a bit harsh from the examiner's side.

The probability generating function question was the only one that bothered me, does anyone remember how to do it?

Which part? For (a), you end up with an infinite geometric sum and get the required result. I went back and did (b) after the exam, but it's that manipulation where you express X in terms of a cumulative mass function and use it to find the CMF of Y (and hence find the PMF and PGF). I don't remember exactly what © was, but I think it was a similar manipulation.

Edit: Actually, I just realized that you can use the fact that G(t)=E(tX) for (b), which bypasses the need to find the PMF of Y. I'm guessing this was the response the examiner was expecting, which was why the question was only worth 6 marks.

Edited by ctrls
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the probability generating function was ok - i did Tz0 though. it only asked to prove that the probability generating function of a geometric distribution was what was given. and then if G(t) was the given function, what would G(t^2) be.

tz0 was ok for me.

the new things on were line of regression, unbiased estimates, and the prob. gen funciton

the unbiased estimate had a massive integral which had to be done twice and it was dreadful .___.

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the probability generating function was ok - i did Tz0 though. it only asked to prove that the probability generating function of a geometric distribution was what was given. and then if G(t) was the given function, what would G(t^2) be.

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure part (b) was asking to prove the that the PGF of Y, where Y=2X, was G(t2)... :(

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#3 on P3, PDF for Y and associated unbiased estimator, is the one I'm pretty sure I got full points on. I felt pretty confident about 2 except for the last part, with the angle between regression lines (hoping for FT marks on it). #1 and #4 were ok imo, but I wasn't feeling too hot on them.

In regards to Papers 1 and 2, I'm expecting 100+ marks on Paper 1 and 90+ marks on Paper 2. Again, these are the TZ1 papers.

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