What universities should I be thinking of for safety?

[Ace of Devils]

I'm choosing between applying for Econ/PPE/Law, and so far I have 3 colleges that I'm quite sure are definite:

 

Oxford (reach)*

LSE (semi-reach)

Warwick (normal)

 

*reach = Applying there is still quite unlikely even if I meet requirements, normal = I think I have a solid chance

 

I've been told its good to have 1-2 reach school, 2-3 normal-reach and 1-2 safety/back ups, and so far I've thought of the following:

 

Durham (normal but semi-reach for law)

UCL (normal)

Bristol (safety)

Manchester (safety)

Bath (safety)

Edinburgh (semi-reach)

 

But due to the limit of 5 I can only pick two of these. Any advice? I'm sitting at around 43-44 on current grades and midterms, but want to keep my options open in case I fall to 39ish or below.

[bguloglu]

I think one safety will be enough, so you could go with one of the semi-reach, reach choices - especially with your grades.